Fafe vs Maria da Fonte Friday 31st July 2026 10:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Fafe Maria da Fonte

Fafe W L W D L W

Maria da Fonte L L W W L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Fafe are favored to win this friendly, reflecting their significant quality advantage over Maria da Fonte. However, Maria da Fonte's recent defensive struggles and their rest advantage keep the match competitive enough that goals are likely on both sides—the model leans slightly toward over 2.5 goals despite both teams showing moderate form. The lack of history between these sides and relatively balanced recent performances suggest the outcome remains somewhat uncertain, though Fafe's superior squad should give them the edge.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Fafe	Maria da Fonte	1 - 0	January 19, 2020
Maria da Fonte	Fafe	1 - 1	August 18, 2019

Fafe Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 18, 26	Away	Sanjoanense	0 - 1	Win
Jul 15, 26	Away	Chaves	4 - 1	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Away	Vizela	0 - 3	Win
May 3, 26	Away	SC Braga B	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 28, 26	Home	São João Ver	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 23, 26	Home	Torreense	2 - 0	Win

Maria da Fonte Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 31, 25	Home	Brito	1 - 2	Loss
Oct 20, 24	Home	Arouca	0 - 5	Loss
Sep 21, 24	Away	Lajense	0 - 1	Win
Sep 8, 24	Home	Cardielense	2 - 1	Win
Apr 16, 23	Away	Pevidem	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 8, 23	Home	Monção	2 - 6	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.4% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Fafe to win

This prediction indicates that Fafe has a 66.48% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.42 %

Most Likely Scorelines

Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions View plans

Comments

[[ comment.user.username ]]

This comment has been removed