Leek Town vs Runcorn Linnets Friday 31st July 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Leek Town Runcorn Linnets

Leek Town D W D L D L

Runcorn Linnets L L L W D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Leek Town are favored to win this friendly, holding a modest quality advantage and benefiting from Runcorn Linnets' poor recent form, though the prediction is relatively cautious at 47%. However, Leek Town's defensive struggles recently weigh against a comfortable victory, and the model suggests a low-scoring match is more likely than a high-scoring one, with under 2.5 goals expected in roughly six out of ten outcomes. Both teams' similar rest levels mean fatigue shouldn't significantly tilt the balance either way.

Leek Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Away	Stalybridge Celtic	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 21, 26	Away	Kidsgrove Athletic	0 - 1	Win
Jul 14, 26	Home	Macclesfield	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 2, 25	Home	Harborough Town	0 - 3	Loss
Aug 30, 25	Away	Harborough Town	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 14, 24	Away	Kidderminster Harriers	2 - 1	Loss

Runcorn Linnets Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Home	Ashton United	2 - 4	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Home	United of Manchester	0 - 4	Loss
Oct 11, 25	Home	Buxton	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 30, 25	Away	Ashton United	1 - 2	Win
Sep 27, 25	Home	Ashton United	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 13, 25	Away	Pickering Town	0 - 2	Win

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 54.7% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Leek Town to win

This prediction indicates that Leek Town has a 47.31% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.90 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.43% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.1% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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