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Primera Nacional

Aug. 9, 2026 4 weeks, 1 day ago
2 – 0
Full Time

Match Analysis

Gimnasia Y Tiro Nueva Chicago
Gimnasia Y Tiro W W W D W D
Nueva Chicago W L D L W D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Gimnasia Y Tiro have been in strong recent form, while Nueva Chicago have been only moderately consistent. Despite Nueva Chicago's historical dominance in recent head-to-head matches and their rest advantage, the model predicts a home win with a 43% probability, which is notably more confident than what the market odds suggest. The model also sees the game as likely to stay under 2.5 goals, aligning with the market's view on this outcome.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Nueva Chicago Gimnasia Y Tiro 3 - 1 March 23, 2026
Nueva Chicago Gimnasia Y Tiro 2 - 0 September 22, 2024
Gimnasia Y Tiro Nueva Chicago 2 - 0 May 5, 2024

Gimnasia Y Tiro Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 5, 26 Away Almagro 0 - 2 Win
Aug 2, 26 Away Temperley 1 - 2 Win
Jul 26, 26 Home Deportivo Maipu 1 - 0 Win
Jul 12, 26 Home Patronato 1 - 1 Draw
Jul 4, 26 Away Colegiales 1 - 2 Win
Jun 21, 26 Away Deportivo Maipu 0 - 0 Draw

Nueva Chicago Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 1, 26 Home San Martin Tucuman 2 - 1 Win
Jul 25, 26 Away Atletico DE Rafaela 1 - 0 Loss
Jul 17, 26 Home Agropecuario 1 - 1 Draw
Jul 11, 26 Away Tristan Suarez 1 - 0 Loss
Jul 4, 26 Home Club Atlético Güemes 2 - 0 Win
Jun 23, 26 Home Atletico DE Rafaela 0 - 0 Draw

Primera Nacional Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
12 Gimnasia Y Tiro 23 9 7 7 24 22 +2 34
20 Nueva Chicago 22 7 8 7 20 20 0 29

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 59.9% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Gimnasia Y Tiro to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Gimnasia Y Tiro has a 43.39% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.90 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 63.11% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 68.78% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison
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