USL Championship
Match Analysis
Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising
Sacramento Republic
L
W
W
D
W
L
Phoenix Rising
D
D
W
L
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising | Sacramento Republic | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
| Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising | 2 - 0 | April 5, 2026 |
| Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising | 2 - 2 | September 14, 2025 |
| Phoenix Rising | Sacramento Republic | 2 - 2 | April 19, 2025 |
| Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising | 2 - 0 | September 15, 2024 |
| Phoenix Rising | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 1 | May 5, 2024 |
Sacramento Republic Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | FC Tulsa | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Sporting JAX | 5 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Charleston Battery | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 9, 26 | Home | Rhode Island | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jun 21, 26 | Home | New Mexico United | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Phoenix Rising Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Las Vegas Lights | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Hartford Athletic | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | Monterey Bay | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 5, 26 | Away | Colorado Springs | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 21, 26 | Home | Oakland Roots | 3 - 4 | Loss |
| Jun 14, 26 | Away | El Paso Locomotive | 1 - 1 | Draw |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 26 |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 22 |
Predictions
Sacramento Republic to win
This prediction indicates that Sacramento Republic has a 50.59% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.09 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.31% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.1% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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