Lexington vs Phoenix Rising Sunday 09th August 2026 02:00 AM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Lexington Phoenix Rising

Lexington W L W W W L

Phoenix Rising W L L D L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Lexington	Phoenix Rising	2 - 0	August 9, 2025
Phoenix Rising	Lexington	0 - 1	July 5, 2025

Lexington Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 22, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	2 - 0	Win
Jul 15, 26	Home	New Mexico United	1 - 4	Loss
Jul 4, 26	Away	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 4	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	San Antonio	2 - 0	Win
May 31, 26	Away	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 4	Win
May 23, 26	Away	Indy Eleven	3 - 1	Loss

Phoenix Rising Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 19, 26	Home	Monterey Bay	3 - 2	Win
Jul 5, 26	Away	Colorado Springs	3 - 1	Loss
Jun 21, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	3 - 4	Loss
Jun 14, 26	Away	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 11, 26	Home	Louisville City	0 - 2	Loss
May 31, 26	Home	Sacramento Republic	2 - 0	Win

USL Championship Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Lexington	15	6	3	6	24	20	+4	21
15	Phoenix Rising	16	5	5	6	23	24	-1	20

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.72% likelihood that both Lexington and Phoenix Rising will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Lexington to win

This prediction indicates that Lexington has a 49.24% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.48 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.18% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.74% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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