Mariehamn vs Ilves Saturday 10th October 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Veikkausliiga

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Mariehamn View team ›

Oct. 10, 2026 3 days, 12 hours ago

1 – 1

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Ilves View team ›

Match Analysis

Mariehamn Ilves

Mariehamn L W L W W W

Ilves W W W W L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

In their recent meetings, Ilves has consistently outperformed Mariehamn, indicating a strong historical advantage. The model predicts an away win with a 45% probability, reflecting Ilves's clear quality gap and stronger recent form, though this is slightly less confident than what the market odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a high likelihood (59%) that both teams will score, aligning with Mariehamn's recent defensive vulnerabilities and Ilves's ability to create more chances, and this view is more confident than the market odds suggest.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ilves	Mariehamn	2 - 0	August 9, 2026
Mariehamn	Ilves	2 - 2	April 18, 2026
Ilves	Mariehamn	2 - 1	August 31, 2025
Mariehamn	Ilves	3 - 2	April 27, 2025
Ilves	Mariehamn	2 - 0	August 11, 2024
Mariehamn	Ilves	0 - 1	April 28, 2024

Mariehamn Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 18, 26	Away	SJK	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Home	Turku PS	1 - 0	Win
Sep 8, 26	Away	Lahti	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 31, 26	Home	FF Jaro	2 - 0	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	KuPS	2 - 4	Win
Aug 15, 26	Home	SJK	2 - 0	Win

Ilves Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Home	Haka	3 - 0	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Turku PS	0 - 3	Win
Sep 12, 26	Home	Lahti	3 - 1	Win
Sep 8, 26	Home	FF Jaro	2 - 0	Win
Aug 31, 26	Home	HJK helsinki	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 22, 26	Home	VPS	0 - 1	Loss

Veikkausliiga Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
11	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.9% likelihood that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Ilves to win

This prediction indicates that Ilves has a 44.55% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.65 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.32% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.9% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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