Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United Sunday 09th August 2026 05:00 AM football predictions.

Monterey Bay New Mexico United

Monterey Bay L D W L W W

New Mexico United W W D W D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Monterey Bay	New Mexico United	1 - 1	September 21, 2025
New Mexico United	Monterey Bay	1 - 0	April 24, 2025
New Mexico United	Monterey Bay	3 - 2	August 18, 2024
Monterey Bay	New Mexico United	1 - 0	June 2, 2024
New Mexico United	Monterey Bay	2 - 1	May 14, 2023
Monterey Bay	New Mexico United	4 - 2	April 9, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 19, 26	Away	Phoenix Rising	3 - 2	Loss
Jul 5, 26	Away	San Antonio	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 21, 26	Home	El Paso Locomotive	1 - 0	Win
Jun 18, 26	Away	FC Tulsa	2 - 0	Loss
Jun 11, 26	Home	Sporting JAX	2 - 1	Win
May 31, 26	Home	Loudoun United	4 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 15, 26	Away	Lexington	1 - 4	Win
Jul 5, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	2 - 1	Win
Jul 2, 26	Home	Atlante FC	3 - 3	Draw
Jun 21, 26	Away	Sacramento Republic	0 - 1	Win
Jun 14, 26	Home	Orange County SC	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	19	15	+4	24
21	Monterey Bay	16	4	3	9	16	25	-9	15

This prediction indicates that New Mexico United has a 51.16% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 23.99 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.93% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.13% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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