USL Championship
Match Analysis
Monterey Bay
Sacramento Republic
Monterey Bay
L
L
L
L
L
D
Sacramento Republic
D
L
W
W
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | Monterey Bay | 1 - 1 | March 22, 2026 |
| Monterey Bay | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 0 | September 28, 2025 |
| Sacramento Republic | Monterey Bay | 1 - 0 | August 10, 2025 |
| Monterey Bay | Sacramento Republic | 2 - 1 | March 1, 2025 |
| Sacramento Republic | Monterey Bay | 2 - 2 | October 10, 2024 |
| Monterey Bay | Sacramento Republic | 0 - 2 | June 9, 2024 |
Monterey Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | New Mexico United | 2 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | El Paso Locomotive | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Lexington | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Orange County SC | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Phoenix Rising | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 5, 26 | Away | San Antonio | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Sacramento Republic Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | FC Tulsa | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Sporting JAX | 5 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Charleston Battery | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 9, 26 | Home | Rhode Island | 2 - 1 | Win |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 15 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.28% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Sacramento Republic to win
This prediction indicates that Sacramento Republic has a 61.56% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.74 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.2% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington
57 minutes from now · 6 a.m.
›
Las Vegas Lights vs Brooklyn
27 minutes from now · 5:30 a.m.
›
Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay
2 minutes ago · 5 a.m.
›
Colorado Springs vs Birmingham Legion
an hour ago · 4 a.m.
›
New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa
32 minutes ago · 4:30 a.m.
›
San Antonio vs El Paso Locomotive
an hour ago · 4 a.m.
›
Orange County SC vs Louisville City
2 minutes ago · 5 a.m.
›
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