Montpellier vs Aubagne Saturday 11th July 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Montpellier Aubagne

Montpellier D L W W D D

Aubagne W D L L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 9, 26	Away	RED Star FC 93	1 - 1	Draw
May 2, 26	Home	Clermont Foot	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Away	Amiens	0 - 2	Win
Apr 17, 26	Home	Grenoble	2 - 1	Win
Apr 10, 26	Away	Annecy	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 4, 26	Home	Estac Troyes	2 - 2	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 15, 26	Home	Caen	3 - 1	Win
May 9, 26	Away	Gobelins	1 - 1	Draw
May 1, 26	Home	Stade Briochin	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Away	Rouen	3 - 1	Loss
Apr 17, 26	Home	Orleans	0 - 2	Loss
Apr 10, 26	Away	Le Puy Foot	1 - 2	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1629	Aubagne	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1629	Montpellier	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.74% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Aubagne has a 38.38% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 35.23 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.57% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.12% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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