Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Sunday 09th August 2026 05:00 AM football predictions.

Orange County SC Tampa Bay Rowdies

Orange County SC D D W W D W

Tampa Bay Rowdies D L W L D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Orange County SC	2 - 0	July 13, 2024
Orange County SC	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1 - 1	March 19, 2023
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Orange County SC	3 - 1	August 27, 2022
Tampa Bay Rowdies	Orange County SC	1 - 3	November 29, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 8, 26	Away	Hartford Athletic	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Away	Rhode Island	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 24, 26	Away	Miami FC	2 - 4	Win
Jun 21, 26	Away	Las Vegas Lights	2 - 3	Win
Jun 14, 26	Away	New Mexico United	1 - 1	Draw
May 24, 26	Home	Oakland Roots	3 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 18, 26	Away	Loudoun United	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Home	Lexington	1 - 4	Loss
Jun 20, 26	Away	Brooklyn	0 - 2	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	0 - 1	Loss
Jun 10, 26	Home	Charleston Battery	2 - 2	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	Louisville City	0 - 2	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	16	9	5	2	25	13	+12	32
2	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	25	18	+7	28

This prediction indicates that Orange County SC has a 37.52% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.33 %

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