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Friendlies Clubs logo

Friendlies Clubs
Ponferradina logo Ponferradina
Aug. 1, 2026 3 days, 7 hours from now VS
Real Avilés logo Real Avilés

Match Analysis

Ponferradina Real Avilés
Ponferradina L D W D W W
Real Avilés D D L L D D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Ponferradina Real Avilés 3 - 1 May 9, 2026
Real Avilés Ponferradina 0 - 3 August 31, 2025
Real Avilés Ponferradina 0 - 0 August 2, 2023

Ponferradina Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 20, 26 Away Celta de Vigo II 4 - 1 Loss
Jun 13, 26 Home Celta de Vigo II 0 - 0 Draw
Jun 6, 26 Away Atlético Madrid II 0 - 1 Win
May 30, 26 Home Atlético Madrid II 0 - 0 Draw
May 23, 26 Home Athletic Club II 1 - 0 Win
May 17, 26 Away Arenteiro 0 - 1 Win

Real Avilés Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 25, 26 Away Real Oviedo II 0 - 0 Draw
May 23, 26 Away Pontevedra 2 - 2 Draw
May 17, 26 Home Barakaldo 1 - 4 Loss
May 9, 26 Away Ponferradina 3 - 1 Loss
May 2, 26 Home Guadalajara 2 - 2 Draw
Apr 26, 26 Away Racing Ferrol 2 - 2 Draw

Predictions

Ponferradina to win
This prediction indicates that Ponferradina has a 55.37% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.20 %
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.8% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.06% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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