Progres Niederkorn vs Thionville Lusitanos Saturday 11th July 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Progres Niederkorn Thionville Lusitanos

Progres Niederkorn L L L D L L

Thionville Lusitanos L D D W W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Thionville Lusitanos	Progres Niederkorn	1 - 1	July 19, 2025

Progres Niederkorn Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	UN Kaerjeng 97	0 - 3	Loss
Jan 31, 26	Away	Eintracht Trier	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 26, 25	Home	Sochaux	0 - 3	Loss
Jul 19, 25	Away	Thionville Lusitanos	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 9, 25	Home	Mamer	1 - 2	Loss
Feb 1, 25	Home	FC 08 Homburg	0 - 2	Loss

Thionville Lusitanos Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Nov 15, 25	Away	Racing Besançon	4 - 0	Loss
Jul 19, 25	Home	Progres Niederkorn	1 - 1	Draw
Dec 22, 24	Home	Valenciennes	2 - 2	Draw
Nov 30, 24	Away	Etoile Matoury	0 - 2	Win
Nov 16, 24	Away	Boulay	0 - 3	Win
Jul 31, 24	Away	Nancy	1 - 0	Loss

Friendlies Clubs Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1647	Thionville Lusitanos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2772	Progres Niederkorn	2	0	0	2	1	5	-4	0

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 56.6% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Thionville Lusitanos to win

This prediction indicates that Thionville Lusitanos has a 47.01% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.90 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.82% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Friendlies Clubs