Quilmes vs Almagro Saturday 08th August 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

Primera Nacional

Quilmes

Aug. 9, 2026 4 weeks, 1 day ago

1 – 1

Full Time

Almagro

Match Analysis

Quilmes Almagro

Quilmes W D L L W L

Almagro L D W L W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Historically, Almagro has had the upper hand in games against Quilmes, which adds an interesting dynamic to this matchup. Despite Quilmes having a modest quality edge on paper and both teams showing moderate recent form, the model predicts a home win with a 45% probability. This prediction is notably more confident than the market odds suggest for a Quilmes victory. Additionally, the model sees the game ending with fewer than two goals, aligning with the market's leaning toward an under outcome.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Almagro	Quilmes	1 - 0	March 21, 2026
Almagro	Quilmes	2 - 2	August 31, 2025
Quilmes	Almagro	0 - 1	April 26, 2025
Quilmes	Almagro	1 - 1	September 23, 2022
Almagro	Quilmes	0 - 1	December 11, 2020
Almagro	Quilmes	2 - 1	October 20, 2019

Quilmes Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 5, 26	Home	Gimnasia Jujuy	2 - 0	Win
Aug 1, 26	Away	Patronato	3 - 3	Draw
Jul 26, 26	Home	Colegiales	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 12, 26	Away	Midland	1 - 0	Loss
Jul 4, 26	Home	Atlanta	2 - 1	Win
Jun 20, 26	Away	Colegiales	3 - 1	Loss

Almagro Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 5, 26	Home	Gimnasia Y Tiro	0 - 2	Loss
Aug 1, 26	Home	Midland	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 27, 26	Away	Atlanta	1 - 3	Win
Jul 12, 26	Away	San Martin Tucuman	3 - 0	Loss
Jul 4, 26	Home	Atletico DE Rafaela	1 - 0	Win
Jun 20, 26	Home	Atlanta	2 - 0	Win

Primera Nacional Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
21	Almagro	23	8	5	10	20	26	-6	29
22	Quilmes	23	7	7	9	23	20	+3	28

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 58.97% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Quilmes to win

This prediction indicates that Quilmes has a 44.55% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.61 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.94% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 69.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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