USL Championship
Match Analysis
Rhode Island
Louisville City
Rhode Island
L
W
L
W
W
L
Louisville City
W
D
L
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | Rhode Island | 4 - 2 | March 21, 2026 |
| Rhode Island | Louisville City | 0 - 1 | September 6, 2025 |
| Louisville City | Rhode Island | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2025 |
| Louisville City | Rhode Island | 0 - 3 | November 10, 2024 |
| Louisville City | Rhode Island | 2 - 5 | June 23, 2024 |
| Rhode Island | Louisville City | 0 - 0 | May 25, 2024 |
Rhode Island Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Birmingham Legion | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Hartford Athletic | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 9, 26 | Away | Sacramento Republic | 2 - 1 | Loss |
Louisville City Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Orange County SC | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | San Antonio | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 5 - 4 | Loss |
| Jul 29, 26 | Home | Birmingham Legion | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Trinidad and Tobago | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3 - 1 | Loss |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Louisville City | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 34 | +2 | 31 |
| 15 | Rhode Island | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 25 |
Predictions
Rhode Island to win
This prediction indicates that Rhode Island has a 42.11% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.69 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.49% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.54% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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