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USL Championship
Rhode Island logo Rhode Island
Aug. 23, 2026 1 week, 6 days from now VS
Monterey Bay logo Monterey Bay

Match Analysis

Rhode Island Monterey Bay
Rhode Island L W W L D W
Monterey Bay L L L L D W
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Rhode Island Monterey Bay 1 - 1 May 10, 2025
Monterey Bay Rhode Island 2 - 2 March 24, 2024

Rhode Island Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 2, 26 Away Birmingham Legion 1 - 0 Loss
Jul 25, 26 Away Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0 - 1 Win
Jul 18, 26 Home Hartford Athletic 1 - 0 Win
Jul 9, 26 Away Sacramento Republic 2 - 1 Loss
Jul 4, 26 Home Orange County SC 1 - 1 Draw
Jun 13, 26 Away Loudoun United 1 - 4 Win

Monterey Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 6, 26 Away El Paso Locomotive 1 - 0 Loss
Aug 1, 26 Away Lexington 3 - 2 Loss
Jul 26, 26 Home Orange County SC 1 - 2 Loss
Jul 19, 26 Away Phoenix Rising 3 - 2 Loss
Jul 5, 26 Away San Antonio 0 - 0 Draw
Jun 21, 26 Home El Paso Locomotive 1 - 0 Win

USL Championship Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
13 Rhode Island 16 6 4 6 25 19 +6 22
23 Monterey Bay 18 4 3 11 19 30 -11 15

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.26% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Rhode Island to win
This prediction indicates that Rhode Island has a 63.54% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.05 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.25% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.26% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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