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Erovnuli Liga

Aug. 9, 2026 4 weeks, 1 day ago
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Match Analysis

Spaeri Dinamo Tbilisi
Spaeri L L D L D L
Dinamo Tbilisi L W L W W W
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Spaeri have shown poor recent form, while Dinamo Tbilisi have been moderately consistent. The model predicts Dinamo Tbilisi to win with a 49% probability, which is notably higher than what the market odds suggest for an away victory. Additionally, the model sees a good chance that both teams will score (54% probability) and that there will be more than 2.5 goals in the match (52% probability), aligning somewhat more confidently with the market's leaning towards a higher-scoring game.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Dinamo Tbilisi Spaeri 2 - 1 May 7, 2026
Spaeri Dinamo Tbilisi 1 - 2 March 7, 2026

Spaeri Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 20, 26 Home Samgurali 0 - 1 Loss
Jul 17, 26 Home FC Urartu 2 - 3 Loss
Jun 22, 26 Away Torpedo Kutaisi 0 - 0 Draw
Jun 16, 26 Away Dila 3 - 1 Loss
Jun 12, 26 Away Saburtalo 1 - 1 Draw
May 29, 26 Away Rustavi 2 - 1 Loss

Dinamo Tbilisi Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 30, 26 Away FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7 - 2 Loss
Jul 23, 26 Home FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3 - 0 Win
Jul 16, 26 Home US Mondorf-les-bains 0 - 1 Loss
Jul 9, 26 Away US Mondorf-les-bains 1 - 2 Win
Jun 23, 26 Home Dinamo Batumi 2 - 1 Win
Jun 18, 26 Home Samgurali 5 - 3 Win

Erovnuli Liga Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 19 8 7 4 31 21 +10 31
9 Spaeri 19 5 7 7 25 25 0 22

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Dinamo Tbilisi to win
This prediction indicates that Dinamo Tbilisi has a 48.73% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.10 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison
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