Spartak Varna vs Nesebar Wednesday 08th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Spartak Varna Nesebar

Spartak Varna D W W L W D

Nesebar L L D L L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Nesebar	Spartak Varna	0 - 1	February 10, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	Dunav Ruse	0 - 0	Draw
May 22, 26	Home	Lokomotiv Sofia	3 - 0	Win
May 18, 26	Away	Montana	0 - 2	Win
May 14, 26	Away	Septemvri Sofia	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Slavia Sofia	2 - 1	Win
May 6, 26	Home	Dobrudzha	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Feb 5, 25	Home	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	0 - 3	Loss
Feb 1, 25	Home	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	1 - 2	Loss
Jan 29, 25	Home	Sozopol	0 - 0	Draw
Jan 25, 25	Away	Fratria	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 6, 24	Home	Dobrudzha	1 - 3	Loss
Jul 3, 24	Home	Fratria	2 - 2	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
296	Spartak Varna	5	3	1	1	6	3	+3	10
1629	Nesebar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.89% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Spartak Varna has a 36.73% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 35.97 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.97% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.83% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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