St. Pauli II vs Verden 04 Sunday 12th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

St. Pauli II Verden 04

St. Pauli II L D L L W D

Verden 04 L L W L

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

St. Pauli II Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Feb 22, 26	Home	SV Drochtersen/Assel	2 - 4	Loss
Jan 24, 26	Home	Eddersheim	1 - 1	Draw
Jan 17, 26	Away	Tus Dassendorf	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 19, 25	Away	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	4 - 3	Loss
Feb 2, 25	Home	Eintracht Braunschw. II	1 - 0	Win
Jan 25, 25	Home	Heider SV	1 - 1	Draw

Verden 04 Form (Last 4 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 12, 25	Home	Werder Bremen	0 - 6	Loss
Jul 14, 24	Away	Werder Bremen	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 18, 23	Away	Bornreihe	0 - 3	Win
Jul 2, 23	Home	Hamburger SV	2 - 3	Loss

Friendlies Clubs Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1584	St. Pauli II	3	0	1	2	4	8	-4	1
1629	Verden 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.87% likelihood that both St. Pauli II and Verden 04 will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

St. Pauli II to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that St. Pauli II has a 39.1% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.24 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 66.69% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 67.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Friendlies Clubs