Ajax vs AEK Larnaca Friday 10th July 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Ajax AEK Larnaca

Ajax D W D L D W

AEK Larnaca W D D W L W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 24, 26	Home	Utrecht	0 - 0	Draw
May 21, 26	Home	Groningen	2 - 0	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Heerenveen	0 - 0	Draw
May 10, 26	Home	Utrecht	1 - 2	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	PSV Eindhoven	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Away	NAC Breda	0 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 22, 26	Away	Aris	3 - 4	Win
May 16, 26	Home	Pafos	2 - 2	Draw
May 10, 26	Away	Omonia Nicosia	1 - 1	Draw
May 6, 26	Home	Apollon Limassol	1 - 0	Win
May 3, 26	Away	Apoel Nicosia	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Home	Aris	2 - 0	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
814	Ajax	3	1	1	1	6	3	+3	4
1647	AEK Larnaca	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.25% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Ajax has a 37.37% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.07 %

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