Estrela vs Naval 1º de Maio Wednesday 15th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Estrela Naval 1º de Maio

Estrela D D L L L L

Naval 1º de Maio L W L L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Estrela Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Away	SC Braga	2 - 2	Draw
May 11, 26	Home	Famalicao	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Moreirense	3 - 2	Loss
Apr 26, 26	Home	FC Porto	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	Arouca	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Home	Sporting CP	0 - 1	Loss

Naval 1º de Maio Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 16, 16	Home	Maritimo	0 - 4	Loss
Sep 25, 16	Home	Fafe	3 - 2	Win
Sep 4, 16	Away	Benfica Castelo Branco	8 - 0	Loss
May 14, 11	Home	Guimaraes	0 - 3	Loss
May 8, 11	Away	União de Leiria	1 - 0	Loss
May 1, 11	Home	Nacional	1 - 2	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.75% likelihood that both Estrela and Naval 1º de Maio will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Estrela to win

This prediction indicates that Estrela has a 67.29% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.25 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.6% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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