Maritimo vs Estrela Wednesday 29th July 2026 09:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Maritimo Estrela

Maritimo D W L W L L

Estrela W L W D D L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Maritimo come in as slight favourites given a modest quality edge over Estrela, though this is a friendly between sides with moderate recent form and limited history against each other. Estrela's recent defensive struggles work against them, but with both teams similarly rested and competing in a pre-season fixture, the model leans toward a low-scoring outcome—expecting under 2.5 goals and no goals from both sides, despite the home side's marginal advantage.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Maritimo	Estrela	2 - 1	June 11, 2023
Estrela	Maritimo	2 - 1	June 3, 2023

Maritimo Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Home	Machico	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 22, 26	Home	Camacha	2 - 0	Win
Jul 17, 26	Home	Leixoes	1 - 5	Loss
Jul 14, 26	Home	AVS	2 - 0	Win
Jul 11, 26	Home	Academica	0 - 1	Loss
May 15, 26	Home	Chaves	1 - 3	Loss

Estrela Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 23, 26	Home	Nacional	2 - 0	Win
Jul 18, 26	Home	Casa Pia	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 15, 26	Home	Naval 1º de Maio	2 - 0	Win
May 16, 26	Away	SC Braga	2 - 2	Draw
May 11, 26	Home	Famalicao	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Moreirense	3 - 2	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.46% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Maritimo to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Maritimo has a 35.43% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.51 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.07% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.27% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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