Chaves vs Fafe Wednesday 15th July 2026 12:30 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Chaves Fafe

Chaves W W L L W L

Fafe D L W L W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Chaves	Fafe	1 - 0	July 16, 2025
Chaves	Fafe	1 - 1	July 8, 2023

Chaves Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 8, 26	Home	Chaves II	1 - 0	Win
May 15, 26	Away	Maritimo	1 - 3	Win
May 9, 26	Home	Leixoes	1 - 2	Loss
May 3, 26	Away	Portimonense	3 - 2	Loss
Apr 27, 26	Home	Oliveirense	2 - 1	Win
Apr 18, 26	Away	Pacos Ferreira	4 - 3	Loss

Fafe Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 3, 26	Away	SC Braga B	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 28, 26	Home	São João Ver	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 23, 26	Home	Torreense	2 - 0	Win
Apr 18, 26	Away	AD Marco 09	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Away	Sanjoanense	2 - 3	Win
Mar 22, 26	Home	Paredes	1 - 0	Win

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.67% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Chaves to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Chaves has a 40.78% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.60 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.73% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.45% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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