Merthyr Town vs Chorley Saturday 29th August 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

National League - North

Merthyr Town

Aug. 29, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Chorley

Match Analysis

Merthyr Town Chorley

Merthyr Town W L W L L D

Chorley L L L D L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Merthyr Town	Chorley	2 - 3	February 7, 2026
Chorley	Merthyr Town	0 - 2	October 25, 2025

Merthyr Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 8, 26	Home	Hednesford Town	2 - 0	Win
Aug 1, 26	Away	Worcester City	1 - 0	Loss
Jul 28, 26	Home	Swansea	3 - 0	Win
Jul 21, 26	Away	Briton Ferry	3 - 0	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Home	Forest Green	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 14, 26	Home	Yeovil Town	2 - 2	Draw

Chorley Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 8, 26	Home	Chester	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 28, 26	Away	Trafford	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 25, 26	Home	Accrington ST	0 - 3	Loss
Jul 21, 26	Home	Altrincham	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 11, 26	Home	Bury	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 4, 26	Away	Bamber Bridge	1 - 0	Loss

National League - North Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Chorley	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Merthyr Town	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.67% likelihood that both Merthyr Town and Chorley will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Merthyr Town to win

This prediction indicates that Merthyr Town has a 45.24% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.44 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.07% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.37% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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National League - North

Match Analysis

Head to Head History

Merthyr Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Chorley Form (Last 6 Matches)

National League - North Table

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

Merthyr Town to win

Over 1.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

Most Likely Scorelines

Comments

National League - North

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