Pagham vs Ascot United Tuesday 08th September 2026 09:30 PM football predictions.

FA Cup

Pagham

Sept. 8, 2026 15 hours from now VS

Ascot United

Match Analysis

Pagham Ascot United

Pagham D L L L L L

Ascot United D L W L W D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Both Pagham and Ascot United are showing poor recent form, which suggests neither team has been performing reliably. However, Ascot United also has recent defensive struggles, which could make them more vulnerable. The model predicts a home win with a 42% probability and believes there’s a good chance both teams will score and that the match will have more than 1.5 goals, reflecting some optimism about the attacking side despite the overall weak form. The model’s view on goals being over 1.5 and over 2.5, as well as both teams scoring, aligns with the idea that defenses may be weak, especially for Ascot United.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ascot United	Pagham	1 - 1	September 6, 2026

Pagham Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 6, 26	Away	Ascot United	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 2, 25	Home	Horsham YMCA	2 - 3	Loss
Aug 3, 24	Away	Erith Town	6 - 2	Loss
Aug 5, 23	Home	East Grinstead Town	0 - 4	Loss
Aug 6, 22	Home	Erith Town	0 - 4	Loss
Aug 10, 21	Home	Steyning Town	2 - 3	Loss

Ascot United Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 6, 26	Home	Pagham	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 30, 25	Away	Tower Hamlets	4 - 1	Loss
Aug 16, 25	Home	Glebe	2 - 1	Win
Aug 17, 24	Away	Virginia Water	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 3, 24	Home	Milton United	1 - 0	Win
Jul 23, 24	Home	Virginia Water	3 - 3	Draw

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.64% likelihood that both Pagham and Ascot United will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Pagham or Ascot United to win

This prediction indicates that Pagham has a 41.81% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.26 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.45% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.28% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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FA Cup

Match Analysis

Why this prediction? AI insight

Head to Head History

Pagham Form (Last 6 Matches)

Ascot United Form (Last 6 Matches)

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

Pagham or Ascot United to win

Over 1.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

Most Likely Scorelines

Comments

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