Ajax vs Burnley Sunday 26th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Ajax Burnley

Ajax W L D W D L

Burnley L D L D L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Ajax Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 10, 26	Home	AEK Larnaca	1 - 0	Win
Jul 4, 26	Home	Panathinaikos	1 - 3	Loss
May 24, 26	Home	Utrecht	0 - 0	Draw
May 21, 26	Home	Groningen	2 - 0	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Heerenveen	0 - 0	Draw
May 10, 26	Home	Utrecht	1 - 2	Loss

Burnley Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 10, 26	Away	FC Cincinnati	3 - 1	Loss
May 24, 26	Home	Wolves	1 - 1	Draw
May 18, 26	Away	Arsenal	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Aston Villa	2 - 2	Draw
May 1, 26	Away	Leeds	3 - 1	Loss
Apr 22, 26	Home	Manchester City	0 - 1	Loss

Predictions

Ajax to win

This prediction indicates that Ajax has a 55.71% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 23.83 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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