Ayr Utd vs Alloa Athletic Saturday 25th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Ayr Utd Alloa Athletic

Ayr Utd W W W L L L

Alloa Athletic L W W L W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ayr Utd	Alloa Athletic	6 - 0	July 29, 2023
Alloa Athletic	Ayr Utd	2 - 2	March 27, 2021
Ayr Utd	Alloa Athletic	4 - 1	January 30, 2021
Alloa Athletic	Ayr Utd	0 - 2	December 5, 2020
Alloa Athletic	Ayr Utd	0 - 2	February 29, 2020
Ayr Utd	Alloa Athletic	2 - 1	December 14, 2019

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Home	Airdrie United	2 - 1	Win
Jun 30, 26	Home	Dumbarton	3 - 0	Win
Jun 27, 26	Home	Glenafton Athletic	3 - 0	Win
May 1, 26	Home	ST Johnstone	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Airdrie United	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Away	Ross County	2 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 30, 26	Home	Livingston	0 - 3	Loss
Jun 23, 26	Home	Civil Service Strollers	5 - 0	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Stenhousemuir	0 - 1	Win
May 13, 26	Home	Stenhousemuir	1 - 3	Loss
May 9, 26	Away	Airdrie United	1 - 2	Win
May 5, 26	Home	Airdrie United	1 - 0	Win

This prediction indicates that Ayr Utd has a 50.46% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.91 %

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