Derby vs Stoke City Saturday 17th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions. - Dukamneti Sports
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Derby logo Derby View team ›
Oct. 17, 2026 15 hours from now VS
Stoke City logo Stoke City View team ›

Match Analysis

Derby Stoke City
Derby L D D L L L
Stoke City L W W W D W
STRENGTH
SHOT CONVERSION
SHOTS ON TARGET
POSSESSION
SAVE RATE
ATTACKING POTENTIAL
DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Derby Stoke City 2 - 0 April 6, 2026
Stoke City Derby 3 - 1 August 9, 2025
Derby Stoke City 0 - 0 May 3, 2025
Stoke City Derby 2 - 1 November 2, 2024
Derby Stoke City 3 - 0 July 22, 2023
Stoke City Derby 1 - 2 December 30, 2021

Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Oct 14, 26 Away QPR 4 - 1 Loss
Oct 10, 26 Home Wrexham 1 - 1 Draw
Sep 19, 26 Away Burnley 1 - 1 Draw
Sep 12, 26 Home Birmingham 1 - 2 Loss
Sep 9, 26 Home West Brom 0 - 1 Loss
Sep 5, 26 Away West Ham 3 - 0 Loss

Stoke City Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Oct 13, 26 Home Middlesbrough 2 - 3 Loss
Oct 10, 26 Away Bolton 1 - 2 Win
Sep 19, 26 Home Sheffield Utd 2 - 1 Win
Sep 12, 26 Away Watford 1 - 2 Win
Sep 8, 26 Away Cardiff 1 - 1 Draw
Sep 5, 26 Home Charlton 4 - 0 Win

Championship Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
7 Stoke City 10 5 1 4 17 16 +1 16
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6

Predictions

Derby to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Derby has a 38.12% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.82 %
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.89% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Championship

Millwall vs Lincoln 12 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › Southampton vs Bolton 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › West Brom vs Blackburn 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Watford vs Charlton 12 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. › Swansea vs West Ham 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Norwich vs Portsmouth 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Wrexham vs Preston 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Birmingham vs QPR 15 hours from now · 5 p.m. › Middlesbrough vs Cardiff 12 hours from now · 2:30 p.m. ›

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