Accrington ST vs Bury Tuesday 28th July 2026 09:30 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Accrington ST Bury

Accrington ST D L D D L L

Bury W L D W L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Accrington ST	Bury	2 - 4	January 8, 2019
Accrington ST	Bury	1 - 2	September 1, 2015
Accrington ST	Bury	0 - 1	January 27, 2015
Bury	Accrington ST	2 - 1	August 30, 2014
Accrington ST	Bury	0 - 0	February 18, 2014
Bury	Accrington ST	3 - 0	August 17, 2013

Accrington ST Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 11, 26	Home	Blackburn	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Oldham	3 - 0	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Home	Crawley Town	3 - 3	Draw
Apr 18, 26	Away	Swindon Town	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 14, 26	Away	Colchester	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Home	Fleetwood Town	1 - 2	Loss

Bury Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 11, 26	Away	Chorley	1 - 2	Win
Aug 19, 25	Home	Stalybridge Celtic	0 - 2	Loss
Aug 16, 25	Away	Stalybridge Celtic	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 2, 25	Home	South Liverpool	6 - 0	Win
Jul 26, 25	Away	Radcliffe	3 - 2	Loss
Oct 12, 24	Away	Harborough Town	1 - 0	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.98% likelihood that both Accrington ST and Bury will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Accrington ST to win

This prediction indicates that Accrington ST has a 40.96% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.09 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.29% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.42% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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