Estrela vs Nacional Thursday 23rd July 2026 07:30 PM football predictions.

Estrela Nacional

Estrela D D L L L L

Nacional L W L L W W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Nacional	Estrela	2 - 0	April 4, 2026
Estrela	Nacional	1 - 1	November 9, 2025
Nacional	Estrela	0 - 1	April 6, 2025
Estrela	Nacional	2 - 0	November 10, 2024
Estrela	Nacional	0 - 1	May 21, 2023
Nacional	Estrela	0 - 1	January 15, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Away	SC Braga	2 - 2	Draw
May 11, 26	Home	Famalicao	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Moreirense	3 - 2	Loss
Apr 26, 26	Home	FC Porto	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	Arouca	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 11, 26	Home	Sporting CP	0 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 11, 26	Home	Machico	1 - 2	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	Guimaraes	2 - 0	Win
May 11, 26	Away	Santa Clara	2 - 0	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	AVS	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Tondela	0 - 2	Win
Apr 18, 26	Home	Alverca	1 - 0	Win

This prediction indicates that Estrela has a 36.41% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.84 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.47% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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