Burton Albion vs Derby Saturday 01st August 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Burton Albion Derby

Burton Albion D D D D W D

Derby W L W L W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Burton Albion	Derby	2 - 1	July 26, 2025
Derby	Burton Albion	3 - 2	January 15, 2024
Burton Albion	Derby	0 - 3	August 12, 2023
Derby	Burton Albion	1 - 0	April 22, 2023
Burton Albion	Derby	1 - 1	December 10, 2022
Burton Albion	Derby	3 - 1	April 14, 2018

Burton Albion Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 11, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	0 - 0	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Leyton Orient	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Home	Exeter City	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 19, 26	Away	Peterborough	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 11, 26	Home	AFC Wimbledon	1 - 0	Win
Apr 6, 26	Away	Mansfield Town	0 - 0	Draw

Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 17, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	0 - 2	Win
May 2, 26	Home	Sheffield Utd	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	QPR	2 - 3	Win
Apr 21, 26	Away	Norwich	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Home	Oxford United	1 - 0	Win
Apr 11, 26	Away	Southampton	2 - 1	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.85% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Burton Albion to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Burton Albion has a 36.78% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.85 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.15% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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