De Graafschap vs Excelsior Saturday 01st August 2026 01:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

De Graafschap Excelsior

De Graafschap L L L W D L

Excelsior W W W D W W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
De Graafschap	Excelsior	2 - 1	March 7, 2025
Excelsior	De Graafschap	3 - 1	August 16, 2024
Excelsior	De Graafschap	0 - 0	January 14, 2022
De Graafschap	Excelsior	3 - 1	September 17, 2021
De Graafschap	Excelsior	1 - 1	March 19, 2021
Excelsior	De Graafschap	1 - 2	October 5, 2020

De Graafschap Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 17, 26	Home	Telstar	3 - 6	Loss
Jul 12, 26	Home	AEK Athens FC	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 3, 26	Away	Heerenveen	7 - 2	Loss
Jun 27, 26	Away	Utrecht	1 - 2	Win
May 9, 26	Home	Almere City FC	2 - 2	Draw
May 6, 26	Away	Almere City FC	3 - 1	Loss

Excelsior Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 11, 26	Away	Dordrecht	0 - 2	Win
Jul 4, 26	Home	Cambuur	3 - 2	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Sparta Rotterdam	2 - 3	Win
May 10, 26	Home	FC Volendam	1 - 1	Draw
May 2, 26	Away	Groningen	2 - 3	Win
Apr 26, 26	Home	Utrecht	5 - 0	Win

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 64.53% likelihood that both De Graafschap and Excelsior will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

De Graafschap or Excelsior to win

This prediction indicates that Excelsior has a 39.81% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.17 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.53% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 67.61% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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