Ascoli vs Grosseto Thursday 23rd July 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Ascoli Grosseto

Ascoli W D L W W D

Grosseto W D L W L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Ascoli Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 7, 26	Home	Union Brescia	3 - 0	Win
Jun 3, 26	Away	Union Brescia	1 - 1	Draw
May 27, 26	Away	Catania	2 - 1	Loss
May 24, 26	Home	Catania	4 - 0	Win
May 20, 26	Home	Potenza	1 - 0	Win
May 17, 26	Away	Potenza	0 - 0	Draw

Grosseto Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 23, 25	Home	Poggibonsi	3 - 1	Win
Aug 13, 25	Home	Tau Altopascio	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 9, 25	Home	Fiorentina U20	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 6, 25	Home	San Donato Tavarnelle	2 - 1	Win
Jul 24, 25	Home	Fiorentina	0 - 3	Loss
Aug 5, 24	Home	Fiorentina	2 - 7	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.36% likelihood that both Ascoli and Grosseto will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Ascoli to win

This prediction indicates that Ascoli has a 67.77% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.06 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.82% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.93% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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