Caerau (Ely) vs Barnstaple Town Saturday 25th July 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Caerau (Ely) Barnstaple Town

Caerau (Ely) W D W

Barnstaple Town L W L W W D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Caerau (Ely) Form (Last 3 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 3, 26	Home	Croesyceiliog AFC	5 - 1	Win
Jun 30, 26	Home	Cardiff Corinthians	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 26, 26	Home	Undy Athletic	2 - 0	Win

Barnstaple Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 16, 25	Home	Tavistock	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 2, 25	Away	Willand Rovers	0 - 2	Win
Aug 31, 24	Home	Larkhall Athletic	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 17, 24	Home	Falmouth Town	4 - 1	Win
Aug 6, 24	Away	Helston Athletic	0 - 2	Win
Aug 3, 24	Home	Helston Athletic	3 - 3	Draw

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.11% likelihood that both Caerau (Ely) and Barnstaple Town will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Caerau (Ely) to win

This prediction indicates that Caerau (Ely) has a 45.49% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.47 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.77% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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