Tondela vs Nacional Sunday 19th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Tondela Nacional

Tondela L W W D L L

Nacional W L L W W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tondela	Nacional	0 - 2	April 25, 2026
Nacional	Tondela	3 - 1	December 15, 2025
Nacional	Tondela	1 - 2	July 24, 2025
Tondela	Nacional	2 - 3	May 12, 2024
Nacional	Tondela	1 - 1	January 6, 2024
Tondela	Nacional	1 - 0	January 29, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Away	Arouca	3 - 1	Loss
May 11, 26	Home	Moreirense	2 - 0	Win
May 3, 26	Away	Casa Pia	0 - 1	Win
Apr 29, 26	Away	Sporting CP	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Home	Nacional	0 - 2	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	FC Porto	2 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Home	Guimaraes	2 - 0	Win
May 11, 26	Away	Santa Clara	2 - 0	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	AVS	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Tondela	0 - 2	Win
Apr 18, 26	Home	Alverca	1 - 0	Win
Apr 12, 26	Away	Benfica	2 - 0	Loss

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.08% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Tondela has a 35.03% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.31 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.35% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.28% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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